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Hawke’s Bay faces a significant tsunami risk due to the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, Aotearoa’s largest source of earthquake and tsunami hazards. Research indicates there is a 1 in 4 chance of a major event occurring in the next 50 years. Learn more about this risk and our preparedness efforts here.
On October 3rd updated tsunami inundation models for the region between Rāngaiika (approximately 3km SW of the Cape Kidnapper’s Gannet colony) and the mouth of the Aropaoanui River (approximately 3km NE of Tangoio) based on the 2022 “Level 3 Tsunami Modelling in Hawke’s Bay Final Report” by GNS Science will be uploaded to the Hawke’s Bay Hazard Portal.
In conjunction with this upload, tsunami evacuation zones for the entire Hawke’s Bay Region will be merged into a single blue zone. The change from our existing traffic light tsunami evacuation zone model (red, orange, and yellow zone) to a single blue zone will:
A tsunami would pose one of the greatest risks in Hawke’s Bay. The Blue Tsunami Evacuation Zone highlights which areas need to self-evacuate following a long or strong earthquake.
Remember, if an earthquake is longer than a minute, or strong enough to stop you from standing, Get Gone, do not wait, immediately head inland or to higher ground.
A tsunami is a series of powerful waves with strong currents. They are mostly caused by underwater or coastal earthquakes and sometimes by underwater landslides or volcanic eruptions. A tsunami wave can be tens of metres high and inundate land kilometres in from the coast.
Following a Long or Strong earthquake (A ‘Long’ earthquake is any earthquake where in the shaking lasts for one minute or longer. A ‘Strong’ earthquake is one in which standing up can be difficult and/or things fall off walls), everyone within the blue evacuation zone is advised to self-evacuate. Head inland or to higher ground right away.
There may not be time for an official warning.
Everybody that lives, works, or frequents the blue evacuation zone should plan multiple tsunami evacuation routes and practice your self-evacuation route, as part of their household/work emergency plan.
Do NOT go into a tsunami evacuation zone until you have been given all clear by HBCDEM or emergency services. Those outside of the blue zone are advised to stay off the roads.
The tsunami evacuation zone will be available as a standalone App, primarily imbedded in the HBemergency /hazard/tsunami/ webpage.
The inundation model from a ‘maximum credible event’ tsunami will be hosted on the Hawke’s Bay Hazard Portal.
Model of tsunami inundations from other scenarios will be hosted and available on a standalone app.
The single blue zone will be included as a national standard in the upcoming Directors Guidelines. This is change to a singular tsunami evacuation zone is based on GNS social science research conducted in 2023. The research demonstrated better public understanding of the public’s responsibility to self-evacuate following a long or strong earthquake can be attained through a single blue zone.
The move a single tsunami evacuation zone also aligns New Zealand with international best practice.
The research showed that the use of multiple evacuation zones confused people and led to a lower self-evacuation rate and consequent higher fatality rate.
Clearly connecting the tsunami evacuation zone with the anticipated tsunami inundation resulting from a long or strong earthquake, fosters a greater understanding of the self-evacuation responsibility.
In some places the boundaries of the evacuation zone have changed. New inundation data for the region between Rāngaiika (approximately 3km SW of the Cape Kidnapper’s Gannet colony) and the mouth of the Aropaoanui River (approximately 3km NE of Tangoio) based on the 2022 “Level 3 Tsunami Modelling in Hawke’s Bay Final Report” by GNS Science.
Through these new models we can better predict how/where inundation from a tsunami event could impact Hawke’s Bay. In many instances these changes have reduced the potentially affected area. However, it is important to note that in some areas inundation and evacuation zones will have changed.
The 2022 inundation data is more accurate than the previous 2011 data and has better enabled modelling of anticipated inundation depths for specific areas.
HBCDEM encourages everyone to check if they work/live/play in an inundation zone, to see if there are any mitigating actions they may want to take.
Schools and rest homes in the tsunami evacuation zone are required to have emergency evacuation plans. If you have vulnerable friends or whānau who live, work, or play in the blue tsunami evacuation zone, help them make a plan ahead of time for how they will evacuate.
If your child’s school is in a blue evacuation zone, they will be required to have a plan to evacuate and a designated safety zone. Please check with the school so that you are aware of the plan for your child.
As with the previous evacuation zones, those in the blue evacuation zone need to know where to go if they are to self-evacuate following a Long or Strong Earthquake.
The advice of HBCDEM is to look at the evacuation zone map, and then plan a route (preferably with alternative routes) to a safe location. A safe location is a place outside of the blue evacuation zone, either inland or uphill. Local community groups may have identified recommended routes and safe locations.
If you spend recreational time in a blue tsunami zone, take the time to find out where the nearest safe zone is and how you plan to get there if you only have 15 minutes. Ensure that you discuss with your family or group so that everyone is aware of what they need to do.
If you work in a blue tsunami zone, consider discussing with your colleagues about a workplace preparedness plan.
If you live in a blue tsunami zone arrange a family discussion around emergency preparedness which will include grab bags and a household emergency preparedness plan. Practice your tsunami hikoi as a family so everyone is aware of what they need to do and where they need to go.
Please advise, once people have evacuated to a safe zone, they may need to stay there for a while. That is why we advise individual to prepare and take a grab bag with essentials item with them if them.
A grab bag should include items such as snacks, water, something to protect you from the weather (rain cold or sun) and medicines. It is important to think about how you can look after yourself and your whānau while potential damage is being assessed and organized.
HBCDEM advisors support communities with their emergency preparedness with a Community Resilience Plan. The inundation data contributes to the blue zone mapping which appears on the HBemergency website. HBCDEM advisors work with communities to make an informed decision on their tsunami evacuation plan. Workshops will be delivered by HBCDEM advisors from 3rd October to inform communities of the new zone.
As part of the Community Emergency Hub initiative CDEM and Councils provide preparedness workshops for our communities. If a hub is located in a tsunami evacuation zone the hub will only be available for emergencies which do not pose immediate danger to that community.
CDEM will work with accommodation providers to ensure visitors to Hawke’s Bay are informed of the local hazards including a tsunami and closest evacuation safety zone.
Migrants visiting Hawke’s Bay as seasonal workers will be supported by their workplace with education workshops provided by CDEM.
International students will be supported by their educational institute with information on local hazards. Host families will be encouraged to discuss a household emergency plan. Emergency preparedness workshops will be provided by CDEM.
For enquiries on land information memorandum reports, building consents, valuations, and insurance – Contact your local council.
For questions on tsunami evacuation route planning, inundation, tsunami hazards and emergency preparedness planning – Contact enquiries@hbemergency.govt.nz
For media comment from Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management - Contact Hamish.duncan@hbemergency.govt.nz
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